CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM
I recommend a federal structure for Ukraine because
1) that enables the federated states to borrow money independently of the federal government
-that in turn enables restructuring Ukrainian debts as to their duration and interest rates; e.g., by enabling short term local borrowing to stimulate the economy and long term federal borrowing to repay existing obligations.
2) Federalism displaces costly social policies to the states
3) Federalism enables increased local democracy without the problems of referenda and demonstrations.
4) Russia is likelier to lend money to Ukraine’s regions such as Kharkiv and Donetsk and Crimea than to the Ukrainian national government.
5) Federalism enables local constitutional fundamental rights protections.
I recomend the use of special economic zones (SEZ) to enable Ukraine to attain open trade and investment with Russia And the EU. See: Shenzen SEZ China<
Strong President? Or Cabinet and Prime Minister? Open question
Federalism – Division of powers
Federal Policies
-Foreign and security policy
-Monetary Policy
-Tax
-Borrowing
-Criminal law?
State Powers
-Education
-Social welfare
-Tax
-Borrowing
By going federal Ukraine has a much larger borrowing capacity and avoids the risk of being split apart by attracting Russian investment instead of Russian tanks.
DIPLOMACY
Diplomacy can avoid war leading to wealth rather than waste.
Diplomacy: Germany and Russia both trade intensely with each other and thus want an acceptable solution.
Germany should push hard for a Contact Group to develop a solution acceptable to Russia.
I regard Russian participation as a necessary precondition to a durable solution.
Observers should be allowed into Crimea to prevent or confirm human rights abuses.
Ukraine should seek a UN General Assembly Resolution condemning Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. GA Resolutions are
– non binding
– cannot be vetoed
Annexation of Crimea is unacceptable to the United States because a referendum at gunpoint is no free choice.
The consequences of annexation would be severe economic sanctions.
I recommend not imposing further sanctions to see
1) What Lavrov’s claimed solution is.
2) To enable Russia to reach a diplomatic solution
3) To make clear that annexation would result in severe sanctions, a new cold war, and the economic and political isolation of Russia.
I recommend enabling Russia a way to de-escalate the situation honorably. Russia’s basing rights in Ukraine should be affirmed because Russia does not regard its treaty base rights as negotiable. Just like the U.S. Will start Cold War II *if* Russia annexes Crimea, so also will Russia annex Crimea *if* its basing rights there are threatened.
National Self Determination versus Territorial Integrity – Territorial integrity is more important because order i.e. peace the other way would lead to wars.