Path dependent variables like history economies culture language trade geographye are behind the reasons why the USA and China will wind up in a new cold war.
Here they are in summary.
1) China is a mercantilist state capitalist regime
2) China is a dictatorship
These two facts alone doom the U.S. and China to inevitable conflict. It gets worse.
3) Xi Jinping has consistently concentrated all power and decision making in his own hands, freezing other factions (Jiang Zemin, Li Keqiang) out of power, whilst dissolving the politburo and rewriting the constitution to allow for a president (Chairman in fact…) to have a life long tenure (no more term limits). This is the exact opposite of what neoliberals predicted would happen as China grew richer.
4) Despite promising not to militarize China’s man made islands China (Xi) did exactly that.
5) China’s human rights record and
6) Political corruption
remain serious problems but never truly addressed or solved, again contrary to the neoliberals rosy predictions. Enemy of the party? No human rights, de facto. In the wrong faction? Brought up on corruption. In the right faction? Amnesties deferrals of prosecution etc.
Add to all that
7) unfair trading practices (dumping, subsidies)
8) monetary policy (currency manipulation)
9) the great firewall (mercantilism)
10) i.p. theft
Welcome to the new cold war. :/
I also didn’t mention the 12) naval arms race, 13) the space arms race, or the ideological competition to attract allies. But the crowning achivement is their little bio war experiment which escaped from their lab the French built and then got kicked out of:
only men (soldiers), with blood type A (Europeans), preferably the older ones in command, because they want to seize as many of their resources after victory as possible.
Pointing that out is unseemly.
ALL fake losing Trump had to do to win the election was play that card hard and long and blame China relentlessly. He didn’t.
Fortunately, though an authoritarian autocracy, Russia is no longer a dictatorship. Russia will wind up a U.S. ally against China as part of a grand coalition which will isolate and contain China. Ultimately it will break the CCP. Liberalism’s “peace through trade” and “political reform through trade” was self-indulgent folly. That’s over now. So it’s time to crush the dictators again. Yay team.
All I write here is true regardless of what President Biden wants.
We’re looking at interactions of literally billions of people. No one man, not even the President of the USA, can ignore history language trade culture geography and climate
From what I see Biden or his team know about
2) Marxist ideology
So they will founder a bit at first with all their hopey changey failed b.s.,
and Xi will decide “clueless suckers are in power! take advantage of them!”
this will provoke the undecided to see the ugly truth and make those who STILL believe in all that profitable happy talk to look like fools.
I would however like the U.S. to stop failing at foreign policy.
First chapter is free.